15

Given:

  • An ahistorically powerful and advanced Aztec civilisation, anno late 1400s.
  • A set of circumstances much like the ones that led Columbus west: one mad Aztec convinced the world was rather small and he could reach their trading partners (the Chinese) by sailing eastwards.

He sets sail from Haiti, the latest Aztec tributary. The season is undetermined. He has no knowledge of what he'll find on the other side, other than vague records of mythical place called Hindustan.

Where will he land?

Ship facts:

  • It's built for mainly the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean sea and coastal waters from Georgia to Venezuela, but large enough to carry lots of tribute - which they now fill with supplies for the journey instead. Think a slightly smaller, Mesoamerican version of Zheng He's famous treasure ship.
  • There's at least one person aboard who's acquainted with oceanic travel (a Chinese defector - who in this reality regularly crossed the Pacific). The crew at large makes up for their lack of expertise in spirit though.
  • They do not have a clue what's on the other side of the Atlantic; their goal is to reach China. They do not know any currents that only reveal themselves far past the shores. They are going to have to discover all those things on the way east.

Sea facts:

Both the prevailing winds and the ocean currents (gyres) suggest a somewhat northerly course to be "ideal"; going parallel to the North American coast for a bit and ending up in Europe.

But if you look at Columbus' travels, and specifically the return trips, only on his first journey does he curve northward significantly before heading east, and it looks like he was specifically aiming for the Azores that time. So it is definitely not against the laws of physics to sail a straight eastbound path, which would have our brave Aztec land in Cape Verde or Mauritania.

So I wonder if there's an argument to be made that given a sailor with a suitable vessel but little knowledge of the deep ocean (just like Columbus) and no known destination to aim for, that a spot on the Atlantic coast from Senegal to Portugal is most likely to be hit?

Or are those prevailing winds/currents so strong and noticeable that any reasonable sailor encountering them for the first time would be compelled to adopt a more northerly course, and end up somewhere between Tanger and Scotland?

Or is it all so dependent on the season and weather conditions of the time that any destination between those northern and southern extremes is at least plausible?

Update

So I did some more research and I made a map.

map

Fat arrows are winds, thinner arrows are ocean streams (of which the equatorial counter-current is only active in the late summer and autumn, apparently). The lines are all the west-east Atlantic crossings I could find the routes and dates for; just Columbus' four journeys. Don't really know where else to look.

It's... not that helpful in the end. Columbus crossed the Atlantic in basically every season, and he only followed the currents or winds twice.

Safe to say that I'm starting to lean towards any landing site for my Nahuatls to be plausible. If Columbus could take those routes in spite of wind and currents, couldn't my expedition do the same?

KeizerHarm
  • 14,436
  • 4
  • 47
  • 95
  • Do they have a compass? That is what Columbus used to go east and west. He used dead reckoning which is navigating by course and distance (estimated from speed). – Ville Niemi Mar 29 '20 at 22:14
  • @VilleNiemi good question; I am going to say yes, because the Chinese did. – KeizerHarm Mar 29 '20 at 22:51
  • I would like to question one statement in your question. You write that the aztecs want to travel to their chinese trading partners. If they would have chinese travel partners, their whole culture would be affected by that. And they propably would have some rudimentary maps of asia, europe and africa - so it would be not at all like columbus trips. Wouldn't it be much easier to remove that statement and add some simple curiosity instead? – Julian Egner Mar 29 '20 at 23:51
  • I meant east. They should go straight to the east based on the compass. Forgot the directions are reversed. But anyway if you want to go east and you have device that tells where east is that is where you will go. The problem with following the wind or currents that if you want to get back home the directions are reversed. If you are lucky that is. Some of the winds might be seasonal and you'll just get lost instead of running out of food and water. Just using the directions from the compass is much much more likely to see you return home. – Ville Niemi Mar 30 '20 at 02:22
  • @VilleNiemi its not like they cant use star as a guide as far as i know aztec has good astronomy, also chinese compass is pointing south though as far as i know so maybe that can also affect the direction. – Li Jun Mar 30 '20 at 05:55
  • i wonder does the local wood can withstand atlantic ocean though, i remember reading something regarding that, i only remember the part of european ship trouble when they reach pacific ocean like the wood get rot faster due to the dampness, but if the aztec manage to pass hope cape which i kinda doubt it with the ship, i dont see they will have trouble afterward considering zeng he has reach as far as eastern africa and maybe get escorted by the chinese naval in there. though i wonder why the aztec choose to sail east rather than west which is closer and probably easier for the ship. – Li Jun Mar 30 '20 at 06:22
  • @JulianEgner I'm picturing the relationship with the Chinese to be a bit one-sided. The Aztecs would never have been to China personally, so they would barely know that India existed. – KeizerHarm Mar 30 '20 at 08:08
  • why they want to go to india anyway ? i can understand if they want to meet china, but india? do they want india spice? religions purpose like the journey to the west but aztec? or just want to meet another kingdom with almost similar terrain? and again if you say the aztec dont want to go to china why go east to meet china? iam confuse? – Li Jun Mar 30 '20 at 11:35
  • @LiJun They want to go to China. They think the Earth is small enough, and do not know the topography to the west of China. They only know of some of the things there like India, but not enough to draw a map; so they figure they will hit some land and then travel onwards to China. Obviously they do not know about Europe and Africa, or nothing but vague legends. And the reason they don't go west to China is because they seek a shorter route, and one with fewer pirates. They do not know how big the world is. – KeizerHarm Mar 30 '20 at 12:05
  • so your china come or port their ship from their west or past europe or africa? not from the east like past japan or hawai? if otherwise why the aztec dont follow the same route or direction the china come from? – Li Jun Mar 30 '20 at 12:41
  • @LiJun the Chinese come from over the Pacific, but there's pirates in the Yellow Sea, and the Aztecs (specifically the sailor) want to find a shorter route. – KeizerHarm Mar 30 '20 at 13:03
  • So in this world there's already a knowledge and technology for crossing the Pacific - but not the Atlantic yet? – Alexander Mar 30 '20 at 16:25
  • @Alexander the Chinese would be crossing the Pacific regularly. The Aztecs not so much; they would only have good experience with sailing the Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico, and beyond that some second-hand knowledge of deep sea navigation, thanks to the Chinese. China is not sharing everything with them. – KeizerHarm Mar 30 '20 at 16:30
  • Could you please confirm (and update the question) that Aztecs do have suitable ships and navigation technology to cross the Atlantic? (so that much of debating can be eliminated) – Alexander Mar 30 '20 at 17:02
  • @Alexander I thought I already had? I don't understand what all this confusion is about; I specifically said that there was a suitable vessel; just not much knowledge of what's on the other side. – KeizerHarm Mar 30 '20 at 17:21
  • And navigation, too. I assume Aztecs will be able to keep eastward direction (from ship's own, not from geographic perspective) without question, right? – Alexander Mar 30 '20 at 17:31
  • @Alexander Ok, added clarification. If they have a compass, then I presume that they should be able to keep headed straight east, unless the weather/currents wouldn't allow that (which I don't know). Question is if they would be inclined to. – KeizerHarm Mar 30 '20 at 22:18
  • this is kinda up to you it all depends on where they leave from. – John Mar 30 '20 at 22:28
  • @John As said, Haiti. – KeizerHarm Mar 30 '20 at 22:29

5 Answers5

15

The north-northeastern route would probably be the easiest, especially if we're assuming the ship's navigators are roughly as skilled as those on the Santa Maria, et al. This would take the ship, ultimately, to either the Iberian peninsula, or the British Isles, depending on whether the ship ended up following the Canary or Norwegian current, respectively. However, this also puts the ship at the mercy of North Atlantic storms, which, given the Aztec's unfamiliarity with such weather, might be a serious problem for the mariners (this is assuming the Aztecs haven't expanded further north than, say, the Carolinas, which seems unlikely given that Haiti is their newest tributary). Depending on the time of year they set sail, it's a roll of the dice whether they land at all.

However, there is a safer, and potentially more lucrative option (though the mariners wouldn't know it when they set out), it just requires a little more navigational acumen and seamanship. Polynesians sailors developed a method of sailing in which they would actually sail against the prevailing winds and currents, which meant that if they became lost, they could just grab the prevailing winds and sail back where they'd come from, almost like a kind of navigational save point. If your Aztecs developed this technique (maybe they got as far south as Peru, either conquering or trading with the Incas, and learned the technique from Polynesian sailors there), then they could sail "backwards" along the Atlantic North Equatorial Current, and end up in west Africa. Now, circa 1492, this brings them to the west African shores right around the time that the Songhai Empire is reaching its height. This could introduce your Aztecs to the pan-Islamic trade network, which would, in this writer's opinion, be of far more economic and cultural value to them than introduction to European Christendom circa 1492.

A.E. Stephenson
  • 842
  • 6
  • 9
  • 2
    Thanks for the answer. A quick Google reveals that the storms you mention are most frequent in the autumn, so assuming a three month journey, if I want them to survive the trip, the Aztec expedition ought to have departed somewhere between November and April, arriving between February and July, right? The African route also sounds like a great idea, but for their eventual European landing (they're going to do this multiple times) the date seems to matter. – KeizerHarm Mar 30 '20 at 22:03
  • And also; are those prevailing winds and currents noticeable enough for a crew who have never been to the deep Atlantic before? Like, I do not know much about navigation, but could someone tell, in the middle of the ocean: "Right, we're not going anywhere at this rate, let's go northeast instead of straight east"? – KeizerHarm Mar 30 '20 at 22:21
  • 2
    @KeizerHarm From what I understand, the prevailing winds are pretty much impossible to miss, simply because the crew would notice that the winds are, on average, always blowing in the same direction. I suppose how quickly they catch on would depend on how long your Aztecs have been engaged in mid-distance sailing: the Spanish and English had decently-long maritime traditions before the first Columbian voyage, ditto China with Zheng He. If this is their first real outing, there might be a much longer learning curve. How long exactly, I can't say with confidence, unfortunately. – A.E. Stephenson Mar 30 '20 at 22:28
  • Right, so I suppose their expedition would have greater odds of success if they had already discovered Bermuda, to function as their Azores-analogue for practise and exploration. That in turn does sort of predispose a European landing, I'm afraid. – KeizerHarm Mar 30 '20 at 22:31
  • 1
    Do you have a reference for "Polynesians sailors developed a method of sailing in which they would actually sail against the prevailing winds and currents, " It would be interesting to see how close they could sail into the wind. – DrMcCleod Mar 31 '20 at 15:14
5

They would sail straight east and end up on the coast of Africa between Cape Verde and the Canary Islands.

They do not know the winds, the currents, or the geography on the other side. And more importantly, most importantly for your question, they know the do not know. They have no specific goal they can aim for.

With the navigation available to them this means they can only sail along the coast, north or south to reach a latitude, or east or west along the latitude. Sailing east along the latitude of their origin is the only one of these options that is useful for the initial crossing towards the old world.

You'll note that when Columbus went to Americas he first sailed to the Canary Island the westernmost Spanish holding and then sailed straight west along the latitude. On his return trip he went first north then north-east until he reached the latitude of his destination then straight east.

Later trips when he was more confident on the distances and had specific goals in the new world the routes become more precise and less angular because he, and your Aztecs, would have fair ability to estimate the distances sailed.

You cannot do this on the first trip over so it is not really relevant to the question but it is useful to note that on his first return trip Columbus was already confident he can sail north-east part of the way and that on his second return he already hits Spanish territory instead of Portugal. And felt confident to cross to west south of his initial trip to more or less continue his exploration where it ended on the first trip. (And knew which direction to go when he found islands.)

If you want them to sail straight to Europe.

Have the trade from China come via Japan and let your Aztecs know its latitude but nothing else about the geography. They would then start by sailing north along the coast to that latitude, then sail straight east. They'd probably end up somewhere in Iberia or France in this scenario.

And obviously knowing or guessing the latitude of part of China or Korea on that same latitude is just as good and Japan is just an example. I have no idea what port the Chinese would use.

Ville Niemi
  • 43,209
  • 4
  • 74
  • 149
  • 1
    After some pondering I think this is the most correct answer; unless if the vessel in question is for some reason hugely dependent on following the current/wind (more so than Columbus' ships), they would have to be aiming for something, and reaching that would be more important than taking the most efficient route which for all they know could be leading them in circles. – KeizerHarm Apr 06 '20 at 20:45
2

First of all Columbus knew where he is aiming for. Or at least he knew how the sky should look like there. All he needed was to close the sky map of stars. So that's why the first travel TO was in a rather straight line. They had to keep some sort of regularity while charting. So they used Sun as a reference point.
During their way back and other ones they have a rather good idea of what they need to look for in the sky to get back in both directions and that they have enouch "anchor" points to get to place where they want to land.

The thing is that distance from China to Americas is much greater than from South America (especially from Rio Grande Do norte) to Europe or Africa. A seasoned (or just knowledgeable) sailor should know about equatorial countercurrent. And they could try to find exactly the same thing on the other side of America. Landing in african congo Basin Area. They would also prepare for a much longer voyage then it would really be needed. Again, because the distance on Pacific is much greter than on Atlantic.

Also remeber that Columbus knew where he wanted to land in China/India. You have two set points, you have refrence (sun) and you have, let's say assumed knolwedge of 75% of sky above you. You know the earth is round. So you make the route the way you want.

SZCZERZO KŁY
  • 21,906
  • 2
  • 33
  • 67
  • But if Columbus could look at the stars and find out his location, and he knew what the stars looked like in the East Indies, then shouldn't he, during his journey, have started to notice that he wasn't getting anywhere close to his destination in their travel time? If the Americas hadn't existed, he and his crew would have starved long before reaching it. And then he did land in America and thought it was part of Indonesia until his deathbed; what could he have been aiming for exactly, with how much confidence? – KeizerHarm Apr 02 '20 at 12:40
  • Just to be clear, I appreciate your other thoughts, like that the expedition would be supplied for a Pacific journey; I just have questions about the extent to which Columbus knew what he was aiming for. – KeizerHarm Apr 02 '20 at 12:53
  • 1
    They knew that they don't know a part of the sky. The amount of gap was, probably, eye balled as we know his food reserve wan't enough cross, what we now know, as pacific ocean. He wanted to land somewhere in China, Japan or Molouki Islands. So anwyhere beetwen equator and Japan. A distance relating to one beetwen Porto and Senegal. So I assume your chinese sailor would also try to aim for that "left" part of China he knows. If you cut out americas from maps and fold it into a cylidner you will notice that Columbus would land in Molouki Island vicinity. – SZCZERZO KŁY Apr 02 '20 at 12:56
  • Alright, I suppose that makes sense. Thank you for your thoughts; using the equatorial countercurrent to get to Congo is already a wildly different outcome from what I had coonsidered! Once I have time I think I'll make a map of possible routes, taking this information into account. – KeizerHarm Apr 02 '20 at 13:35
1

Until the Atlantic currents were understood (well after regular trading voyages were set up between Europe and the Americas), Captains would just try to set a course to their destination and then use the winds as they could to get there.

Eventually it was noticed that voyages going to America across the northern Atlantic would take considerably longer than those on a more southern course.

So courses that are going against the currents are not impossible, but they will make the voyage much longer.

Michael Richardson
  • 11,172
  • 25
  • 43
0

If we are talking wind-driven ships I would most definitely recommend a somewhat north-heavy route leading to somewhere between Ireland and northern Portugal. It is technically possible to go east directly from Haiti, but I don't think it reasonable to oppose both wind and water currents for no real reason, any sane sailor would understand that following those would bring you forward much faster.

passwortknacker
  • 191
  • 3