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Inspired by Toronto's unaffordable real estate prices and What single change in history would allow to make the German city of Munich be in modern France?. I haven't visited Canada in a while. But I don't understand why Toronto is still Canada's financial hub. Trains move faster than ships. The more railway replaced shipping, the more eastly ships unload their freight for trains to transport them faster westbound. Why have ships sail down the St. Lawrence River to Toronto? For comparison, Vancouver's right on the west coast of Canada — there's no bridge between Vancouver Island and Vancouver.

I copy and paste the customary disclaimers.

  1. The new Toronto must be in one of 2401, 2403, 2409, 2411 2412 — see map below. You can pick where exactly! Note there's no bridge between Tadoussac and Baie Saint Catherine.

  2. The smallest single change must happen on or after Jan. 1 1950. I picked this date to let train speeds catch up to shipping. Newfoundland joined Canada on March 31 1949.

  3. This change must be justified realistically. Don't just suddenly discover gold or precious minerals in the new Toronto. An asteroid can't impact and destroy just Toronto, but not Quebec. French can't suddenly disappear in Quebec, and English Canada can't abruptly switch to French as their mother tongue.

  4. The change has to be a single event, or a collection of compact, tightly coiled events occurring in a short time period. History should appear similar to what happened in real life.

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  • Is the exclusion of Montreal (region 2406) deliberate? It was a major port city up until the later half of the 20th century. – sideromancer Dec 23 '20 at 12:20
  • This is your second question. Your first question was a conceptual duplicate of this question. I apologize if this seems blunt, but a big part of this site is helping people to work out solutions for themselves (we're not a free research consortium). What didn't you learn from the first question that's stopping you from figuring out an answer to this one on your own? – JBH Dec 24 '20 at 00:00
  • @sideromancer yes, it was deliberate. i knew that it was a major port city up until 1950's. that's why i excluded. –  Dec 24 '20 at 06:07

1 Answers1

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Prior to WWII, Montreal was the financial capital of Canada, but three significant events changed this in Toronto's favour:

  1. The 1929 Crash: Toronto's stock market recovered faster than Montreal's, as the gold mining sector bounced back quickly and Toronto was already the largest mining exchange in Canada. When gold's value shot up in 1934, Toronto rose with it.

  2. Opening the St Lawrence Seaway: With the opening of the Seaway in the mid 1950s, Montreal's importance as a port diminished as ships could access the interior of North America directly and vice versa. This is significant not because it allowed ships on the Atlantic to sail to Toronto, but for ships as far as Duluth to reach the Atlantic—something the American rail industry tried to stop. Montreal ceased being a necessary stop for both in- and out-bound shipping.

  3. The Quiet Revolution: The growth of Quebec nationalism and protectionist policies like Bill 101 following the secularization of the province in the late 1960s saw an exodus of Anglophones—and their businesses—from Montreal to Toronto.

(An argument can probably be made that Toronto's supremacy was inevitable however, as Quebec's population growth failed to keep pace in the late 19th Century. By 1905 Toronto was already catching up.)

So, to change history after 1949 such that eastern Quebec, and not Montreal, becomes the finacial capital necessitates completely countering these factors and making Quebec City more important than Montreal:

  1. Mining and associated brokerages must relocate from Toronto 15 years after booming. This, by itself, does not seem likely.

  2. The Seaway must remain closed. WWII delayed the project once already; this is achievable.

  3. No revolution, or a much less nationalistic one. The origins of the revolution can be traced back as far as the late 1800s, but it was the conservative government of the 1950s that set the ball in motion. Tempering the Duplessis government is plausible, delaying the revolution and nationalism until (perhaps) butterflying away as international immigration increases, say.

Solution

It seems the only way to achieve this post-1949 goal is to take both Toronto and Montreal (and environs) out of the running, both as financial centres and as population centres.

I propose an earthquake. The St Lawrence River rift system is seismically active, parallels the Seaway, and runs for 1000km from the Ottawa–Montreal area northeast beyond Quebec City. As recently as 1944 there had been a 5.8 quake on the fault, so it would not be a stretch to imagine a much stronger one a few years later.

One that chokes the St Lawrence to such an extent not only is the Seaway construction impossible, but Montreal can no longer function as a port for ocean-bound vessels, necessitating a move east to deeper waters. Quebec City is really the only plausible candidate.

Toronto is harder to resolve: there would certainly be enormous economic fallout to losing the St Lawrence, and if not rectified quickly Lake Ontario would begin to flood (Bay Street is only metres above the water line), both of which could drive the population and industries to scatter.

With the fallout of the quake the political landscape of Quebec would have entirely new priorities too, perhaps delaying the Quiet Revolution or undermining nationalism with refugees from Ontario.

rek
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    Quebec City doesn't have much for harbour facilities or transport from those facilties to elsewhere. If something happened that made Montréal unusable as a port and screwed up the Seaway, the logical place for Canada's major East Coast port to develop would be one that already existed: Halifax. – Keith Morrison Dec 23 '20 at 16:11