Actually rockets may be the most realistic scenario. Primitive forms of rockets (fireworks) already existed in China at that time. The problem is having a fuel which could be used to reach escape velocity, without all the knowledge gained only in later centuries. This however could be achieved, if only we allow using some technology without the actual knowledge why it works.
I would opt here for the nuclear power, as it can be justified without such knowledge, if we assume it were discovered accidentally during researching something else. And it could be: e.g. at that time Venice was leading producer of glass products (Murano glass), yet in later centuries it was superseded by Czechia (bohemian glass).
If we assume bohemian glass was a thing a bit earlier than in our reality, and that uranium glass was accidentally invented at that time, by experimenting with various ores (e.g. in Jachymov), it gives a quite plausible explanation for pure uranium being in active use and research, without any knowledge of modern chemistry or nuclear physics.
Let’s suppose then, some alchemist out of curiosity somehow manages to accidentally enrich it on a centrifuge, and causes a nuclear explosion destroying the whole city.
As renaissance Italy was a bunch of independent cities instantly at war, such weapon would gain instant attention of every ruler. Just in this reality, instead of Leonardo da Vinci’s tanks, they will get Leonardo da Vinci’s nuclear warheads (and probably an excommunication of anybody who actually uses it).
And all this assumes only trial and error (and lot of innocent victims) and no actual need for the XX century physics.
From here we can just assume the trial and error (justified and funded by the usefulness in war) leads to finding that this form of energy can be controlled by neutron reflectors. Since those are substances as simple as the graphite, we could still assume it’s reached without understanding why it works.
And having nuclear reactor that can be manually (!) controlled, and its power directed in one direction, you have a rocket propulsion system capable of reaching escape velocity.
Now you only need some religious explanation, why anybody involved in operating such a vessel has burns, ulcers and dies in pain.